State of Play: Deep Dive Into the Only U.S. Masters Stats that Matter

The dust is still settling from this weekend’s Kings of War U.S. Masters and I wanted to take an opportunity to look through the results posted and tease out important narratives from the stack of information available. While doing so, a very important question jumped out of the mundane sheet of numbers, one I think we can get a unique data-driven answer on. So here we are, preparing to answer one of the most important questions facing our community. A question endlessly debated in messenger chats and Facebook groups. A question that goes straight to the very core of the game at a competitive level.

What name did best at U.S. Masters 2021?

In the past, I’ve primarily focused on the Armies being brought to major GTs and trying to tease out valuable insights into the general landscape of what was being taken and how they’re performing. But what was often repeated to me was the idea that “the name at the top of the army list isn’t as important as the name of the person playing it” so we’ve taken that to heart here at -/28 and are bringing you in-depth analysis of battle performance at U.S. Masters segmented by name.

A note on methodology: I’ve grouped together multiple spellings of names in order to help see the major trends. For the purpose of this analysis only, we are considering cases like Corey and Cory to be the same name, even though Corey Reynolds gets a fancy extra e in his version. This also means I’ve listed abbreviations of names like the Mikes and the Michaels together. I did not stretch to grouping Marc and Marcelo as that felt like a step too far.

First I thought it was important to separate the duplicate names from the rest of the uniquely named field. This gives us a general idea of how many duplicate names we’ll be grouping, and what that landscape starts to look like. This year roughly 38% of the field (24 out of 64) were duplicate names which in my opinion shows a healthy spread of names within the gaming hall itself. While it would be easier for the scene if each player brought a unique name to the event, it is a sign of a healthy and balanced community that there isn’t a single name dominating the meta from a representation perspective. If the room was 50% “Felixs” for instance, I think that would be a sign something in the game or community was inherently unbalanced and needed fixing.

The largest grouping of a single name capped out at 4, which again shows a sustainable variation in even the duplicate names. With only 6% of the field being a single name, I don’t see an issue here in the overall name meta.

The two highest-performing names were “Keith” (93 Battle Points) and “Travis” (92 Battle Points) with “Steven” rounding out the podium which meant duplicate names held 2/3rds of the top spots in battle. Duplicate names also held 40% of the top 10 by battle, giving unique names a run for their money. The highest-ranking unique name was “Travis” just missing the top spot by 1 point, but defeating a “Keith” head to head in the final round.

Within the duplicate name meta, the highest single score was, as mentioned earlier, “Keith,” but was closely followed by “Steven” and then “Jeff.” The Keith vs. Jeff rivalry has been an ongoing feud, but Steven is a new entry into the upper echelons of the name-based meta. We’ll see if this step up in class can be maintained by the newcomer in the future. The lowest high score from a Duplicate name grouping sadly goes to the “Nicks,” I already know they’re back in training trying to improve their performance for next year and slide out of the bottom spot in the name-based meta.

I think it is also important to look into average score by name grouping to see past just what the top name in a group did. Once again this herd of “Keiths’” outpaces the field with an average of 86.5 battle points and finishing above their bitter rival the “Jeffs’” with 74.25. Darkhorse contender the “Coreys’” came in just behind with 71.5 battle points rounding out the podium. Unique names finished at a respectable average of 62.95 battle points, showing that bringing a unique name does not automatically disadvantage you against the field, as a number of duplicate name groupings did fall below that average.

Finally, I wanted to take a look at the largest difference between high score and average score, to find the name grouping which had the biggest over performer vs. their average. In this category we see “Steven” rising above the field scoring a massive 18.5 battle points above the average of their name, really helping drag that name grouping up the average standings.

So what can you the reader learn from all this?

1. This is just a snap shot of the U.S. Masters meta of 2021, it is also important to know your local name meta before you head to an event.
2. The name meta appears to be in a healthy place. While “Keith” did have an excellent event, there were strong performances by both unique names and other name groups (especially “Steven” and “Jeff”) that show it isn’t being dominated by one name.
3. On a percentage basis, calling anyone you don’t know the name of “John, no wait Jeff” is your best bet but still less than 10% chance of being correct.
4. You probably shouldn’t be named Felix.

As always, this is just a quick look into a subject that could have a much deeper dive. Happy to hear your thoughts in the comments (here or on Facebook) and your own findings from the data presented. Our goal is to arm you with critical information about the meta in these major events you can use to be prepared for your next tourney experience.