Decision Desk Volume 2: Lizards Roll Down Hill

Hello all and welcome back to the DecisionDesk. 

What another article you ask?  You are still doing this thing?  It’s been like forever.  Why yes, I am still writing these things – thanks for asking.  You are all, unfortunately, stuck with me.

This latest article comes from a game of Raze I played as a part of the Lords of the North Team UB Tournament against Steven Devenish.  Our game ended in a close-fought tie (partially because a Drakon Horde decided to take a thousand years chewing through Corsair and Youngblood regiments – stupid Drakons) and partially because of the situation I’m writing about here.

As I mentioned, the scenario was raze.  For this article, we are going to focus on the middle-right portion of the board.

In the picture below, you will see the status of the board at the top of turn five (my fifth turn).  The Elves (i.e. the good guys, i.e. me are on top). The Palace Guard Horde and Heartpiercer Regiment are staring down quite the pickle.  From top right to bottom left, the Salamanders have an Ancient Troop, a Mounted Clan Lord, a Tyrant Horde, two Prime Regiments, and a Herald with the pathfinder aura.

As you can see from the rings, the Tyrants are basically threatening everyone. With movement six, and WC(D3), they are going to come charging down that hill and kill someone.

Running caveat – this is a recreation, some latitude was taken for the article and because I do not have an eidetic memory

At this point in the game, I had already burned two tokens, and Steven had burned one (the Ancients on the upper right had just burned the token bottom 4). 

On the left of the board (not pictured), my f*&king Drakon Horde was taking its sweet time killing Young Bloods and Corsairs with help from my DuracelfTM (three elven mages with LB).  In an ideal world, my Drakons would be available to sweep into the middle and challenge the middle token. In-game, they ultimately were unable to do that, but the mess of units on my left did stop Steven. However, I had decent odds putting 3 US strength on the central token on the Top of 6 – even if that 3 US would be a somewhat wounded Drakon Unit.

The best Steven can do is burn two tokens and control the middle.  To secure I tie, I have to burn one token or own the middle.  If I can do both – I win.  Here was what I did.

These tyrants were a headache all game. Steven did an excellent job delivering them to torment me.

The Palace Guard charged the middle Prime Regiment.  I know I probably can’t kill this unit – I average about 7 wounds against Def 5 while hindered.  But an 8 is not outlandish, and even if I do not kill them, I discharge the token and basically guarantee myself a tie.  If I do kill them, I can turn towards the middle and threaten to control the middle token.

In addition, the Heartpiercers moved back to make the Tyrants have to roll a 3 on their Wild Charge to be able to charge them.  If the Tyrants don’t charge them, they won’t be able to make it to the token, and I might be able to stop Steven from burning this token.  As a bonus, they get to pepper the Tyrants at least one more time.

In-game, the Palace Guard did Elf things and ended up causing something like 12 wounds.  Elite really came through for me.  They were able to turn and threaten the primes.  Best case, the primes charge, I kill them on the counter charge, and overrun to capture the center token. 

You’ll notice, however, that the Palace Guard are in a world of hurt if Steven rolls a 3 for his Wild Charge from the Tyrants…

…and Steven rolled that three.  So…the Palace Guard were toast.  And then Steven made the sound decision to send the Clan Lord (may have actually be Artakyl…but I can’t remember), into the Heartpiercers and pin them out of range of the token.  He then turned his Ancient Troop so it could move 8 inches on turn six and claim the final raze token – which…I admittedly hadn’t considered. 

On my turn six, the board looked like this:

In this configuration, I have discharged 3 tokens, Steven has discharged 2, and controls the middle token.  So we tied.  As I have mentioned (multiple times), my initial plan counted on a Drakon Horde challenging the middle token on 6 by charging the Primes with pathfinder.  With a bane chant available, I was confident I could kill them on the charge. However, the Tyrants kill the Drakons on the bottom of 6, leaving me hoping for a Turn 7 to put more shooting wounds on the Tyrants in cover for the win.

I haven’t recorded it, but the Tyrants had taken a few rounds of shooting, and, if we go to 7, I can likely shoot them dead, even in cover, and have a good chance of clearing the middle token so no one is claiming.  It was a sound strategy…but in hindsight…it wasn’t the best strategy – which is why we are here.

What I Should Have Done.

This is assuming the Palace Guard still do Palace Guard things, but the analysis is the same even if they don’t kill the Prime Regiment on the charge – see below.

In this scenario, I have not moved the Heartpiercers backward quite as far.  So the Tyrants just need a WC of 2 to charge them – but, the HP are unit strength 2, and the Ancients alone cannot control that final token. 

That D3 roll of a 3 is what really killed me…

If Steven rolls that 3 for this wild charge, he likely still charges the Palace Guard to make sure they are dead. He then charges the Heartpiercers with his Clan Lord to disorder them and sets up his Tyrants to finish off the Heartpiercers on Turn 6.

Then – if I am lucky, my Pathfinder Drakons can roar in to charge the Primes. Even if I don’t kill them, I am contesting the middle token, and unlikely to die to a countercharge from the Primes alone.

Here’s what the board looks like if the Drakons fail to kill the Primes on charge.

Bottom of 6, worst case, Drakons don’t cause enough damage to the Primes and are stuck. Tyrants charge the Heartpiercers, murderize them, claim the token and turn to face the Drakons. Primes don’t cause enough wounds on the Drakons, and I win the game at the end of 6.

If the Drakons do kill the Primes, they can then line up a charge on the Tyrants for Turn 7. If the Drakons don’t kill the Primes 6, they likely pick them up Top 7.

And don’t forget the Duracelf is lurking around the top left of the forest – they can swing over and take potshots at the Tyrants in cover. As I mentioned they had already taken a few wounds, and with some moderate luck, I might even kill them.

Bottom 7, if the Tyrants survive a round of shooting, they obviously charge in and remove the Drakons, and we tie the game. But – by forcing the Tyrants to kill both the Palace Guard and the Heartpiercers, I gave myself a likely win on 6, and a decent chance for a win on 7 – as opposed to a tie on 6, and a Hail Mary on 7.

So by making the one decision to not take my Heartpiercers out of range of the token on my side, I have vastly improved my situation on the right half of the board.  It is improved enough that assuming my Drakons perform like they should have (they didn’t) I win on 6 and have a decent chance to win on 7. 

I will take a tie any day against a top-tier player – but Elves play to win – so here’s another lesson on how I can do better.  Thanks to Steven for such a tight game, and thank you all for reading.